Beyond the primary battle, the surge of negative advertising could start to harm Mr. Trump’s general election prospects.
It
started in earnest in December, when Right to Rise, a group supporting
Jeb Bush, spent $2.1 million on an ad portraying Mr. Trump as a “bully.”
At the time, Mr. Trump had relatively high unfavorable ratings compared
with the other candidates: 57 percent among all Americans, according to
a CNN/ORC poll from that month.
But
as the ads began to increase in frequency and the tone turned more
negative, his national unfavorable rating began to climb unabated. A CNN/ORC poll last month
found that it was up 10 points from December, to 67 percent: 11 points
higher than any other candidate still in the race, Republican or
Democrat.
Mike
Murphy, who was the chief strategist for Right to Rise, said the ads
had kept Mr. Trump from consolidating more support in the Republican
primary.
“I
think the negative ads are having a chilling effect on his ability to
grow his natural share with converts,” Mr. Murphy said. However, he
added, Mr. Trump’s own mouth plays a role.
“He
creates an environment where negative ads are a little more fertile,”
Mr. Murphy said, adding that the ads were having more impact now that
fewer candidates are in the primary race.
Larry
McCarthy, a Republican strategist who worked with Mr. Murphy and now
produces ads for Our Principles PAC, said his group had found, through
polling and focus groups, that the best way to go after Mr. Trump was to
use the bombastic billionaire’s own words against him.
“Campaigns
use negative ads because they work,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican
strategist and vocal critic of Mr. Trump. “And Donald Trump has provided
his opponents with a bonanza of negative information to use in ads
targeting his candidacy.”
Compounding
the risks for Mr. Trump is that he has done little to counteract the
effort with his own spending. He has spent just over $16 million on
television ads, and in later contests, he went on the air late or not at
all. A spokeswoman for Mr. Trump, Hope Hicks, did not respond to an
email requesting comment.
Mr.
Williams, who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign,
recalled how allies of President Obama aired a devastating ad that
eviscerated Mr. Romney’s character. It was paired with the Obama
campaign’s own ads, which began running in the late spring and stayed on
the air through the election.
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